Mixed Messages: Trump, The Economy & The Outlook for the PR Industry

In my new column in advance of a CommPRO April 24 Town Hall (click the link to join) on managing through the current challenging environment, I highlight mixed messages from key economic indicators and the importance of planning for a range of scenarios.   

The CommPRO article, “Why the PR Industry Could Be the Canary in the Economic Coal Mine,” underscores the risk that clients’ discretionary PR budgets may be cut or put on hold if uncertainty continues – something that’s already a reality for many. “Hunkering down is a tried-and-true strategy, one that doesn’t help those trying to push new business or programs over the line. It’s always bad news for hiring.”

I know first hand from past economic downturns that corporate communications is rarely the starting point for cutting budgets, but over time the financial gravity of a prolonged downturn leads to the scalpel being wielded.

Despite the lack of clarity from the data, the risk of a recession is rising:

• The March jobs report seemed solid – but a closer look reveals that cuts to government employees were barely reflected.
• The last inflation numbers were positive – but there is a significant push and pull going on between tariffs driving prices higher and the downward pricing pressure of basement-level consumer confidence.
• Upcoming consumer spending data is likely to reflect the impact of pre-tariff purchases of cars and other consumer goods at the same time as consumers are tightening their wallets.

It will take more time before a recession is called, but in the meantime client spending on PR-related activities will be “a key litmus test not only for their economic outlook, but the perceived risk of executing programs in the current environment.”

If we are headed into a recession, it will be both a challenge and opportunity.    

“The PR industry has successfully weathered storms in the past not only because communications has remained a priority, but because the industry has been able to adapt and pursue new ways to add value.”

Taking the time to think through “the range of potential challenges, opportunities and outcomes for your agency or communications department” is the best way to ensure that you are well positioned for what is to come. “You don’t want to be the person swimming naked when the tide goes out.”

Read the full CommPRO article here:   

https://www.commpro.biz/news/why-the-pr-industry-could-be-the-canary-in-the-economic-coal-mine

Simon Erskine Locke is founder & CEO of communications agency and professional search and services platform, CommunicationsMatch™, a CommPRO partner and columnist. He is co-founder of Tauth.io, a trusted content authentication technology to help communicators protect their companies and clients from digital fraud, a member of the board of the Foreign Press Association, and an agency founder. He has held head of communications roles at Morgan Stanley, Prudential Financial and Deutsche Bank.